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What is the policy relevance of this?

The analysis presented here supports the idea that Angela Merkel has not caused the increase in the number of refugees in Europe, but that, to the contrary, she was responding to a big increase. What Merkel was saying in the summer of 2015 was that, instead of trying to deny that big numbers of refugees needed protection in Europe, it was a better idea to acknowledge this as a given fact. The thrust of her argument was: let us not try to close the border, but let us do everything to provide shelter to people who need it.

However, if one government is perceived as being more generous than other European governments, this may well influence the distribution of asylum seekers within the European Union. What does this imply? Should governments try to influence the perception which asylum seekers have of their country? If they succeed in coming across as tough on refugees, and if they all do so with equal success, this leads to a distribution which is similar to the status quo ante , but only with tougher rhetoric (and possibly with tougher policies). Competing on (actual or perceived) toughness does not significantly diminish the total number of people getting to Europe, but only affects the distribution of asylum seekers over EU member states. If policy makers want to prevent an uneven distribution of asylum seekers over EU member states, it seems more plausible to opt for effective harmonization of European asylum policies, something that has miserably Wide Range Of Online See by Chloé Suede Ballet Flats Sale Exclusive Outlet Find Great Shop Offer Cheap Online DyiNNiVu
so far. This would create a level playing field and would eliminate some factors contributing to the uneven distribution of asylum seekers over EU member states.

In this blog post, I have put forward an alternative hypothesis to explain the rise of the number of refugees in Europe in 2015. As I indicated, empirical research to test this hypothesis fully is absent, but the hypothesis makes suggestions about the increase of the number of refugees in a more complex way, beyond the idea that 'Wir schaffen das' or the suspension of Dublin were the cause. If my hypothesis is even partly correct, this implies that under certain conditions European policies may completely backfire and lead to more migration and more border deaths, instead of less. This, in turn, would require a fundamental reconsideration of the premises underlying European asylum law and policy.

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See also

27 Jun 2018

Beyond the Headlines

22 Jun 2018

Performing Asylum in a Gender Perspective: Women’s Struggles across the European Southern Border

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